Almirante Brown 2–4 Sarmiento Junin: Result & Stats

Almirante Brown

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Sarmiento Junin

D. Nadaya 90'

A. Canelo 47'

M. Ferradas 90+3', 89'

M. Díaz 60'

M. Andrizzi 39'

8/18/2013

Primera Nacional · Round 3Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Almirante Brown31%

×Draw30%

Sarmiento Junin38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Almirante BrownExpected goals in this matchSarmiento Junin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.08

Almirante Brown

0.95

Sarmiento Junin

1.08

Sarmiento Junin creates 14% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 29 away

0.99

creates per match

1.34

0.82

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Almirante Brown

0.99

Sarmiento Junin

1.34

allows per match

Almirante Brown

0.82

Sarmiento Junin

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Almirante Brown+0.00on par

Sarmiento Junin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almirante Brown ↓

Sarmiento Junin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Almirante Brown or draw

62%

Almirante Brown or Sarmiento Junin

70%

Draw or Sarmiento Junin

69%

Winning margin

Almirante Brown wins by 2+

11%

Sarmiento Junin wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Almirante Brown 1+ goals

61%

Almirante Brown 2+ goals

25%

Almirante Brown 3+ goals

7%

Sarmiento Junin 1+ goals

66%

Sarmiento Junin 2+ goals

29%

Sarmiento Junin 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Almirante Brown (draw refunded)

45%

Sarmiento Junin (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almirante Brown at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.82 · 110 matches

Sarmiento Junin away — creates 1.34, concedes 0.90 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almirante Brown attack 0.99 + Sarmiento Junin defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.95

Sarmiento Junin attack 1.34 + Almirante Brown defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Almirante Brown scores more

31%

level

30%

Sarmiento Junin scores more

38%

Sarmiento Junin at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sarmiento Junin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

M. Andrizzi

47'

A. Canelo

58'

M. Ferradas← J. Córdoba

60'

M. Díaz

62'

F. Presedo← V. Ormazábal

66'

D. Nadaya← R. Aillapán

73'

80'

89'

90'

90+3'

Almirante

Sarmiento

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

62'▲F. Presedo←▼V. Ormazábal

66'▲D. Nadaya←▼R. Aillapán

73'▲F. Grahl←▼G. Giménez

Almirante Brown substitutes

PresedoNadayaGrahlGutiérrezOrtizVicentínMarrone

58'▲M. Ferradas←▼J. Córdoba

80'▲F. Coniglio←▼M. Díaz

Sarmiento Junin substitutes

FerradasConiglioMartínezCoriaQuirogaEtulainSena

Match Recap: Almirante Brown vs Sarmiento Junin

Sarmiento Junin beat Almirante Brown 4-2 in Primera Nacional on August 18, 2013.

Goals: M. Andrizzi (39'), A. Canelo (47'), M. Díaz (60'), M. Ferradas (89', 90+3'), D. Nadaya (90').

The match was played at Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento in La Matanza, Provincia de Buenos Aires.

Almirante Brown vs Sarmiento Junin — Primera Nacional 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Almirante Brown vs Sarmiento Junin