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Kelen vs Haladás VSE — NB III - Northwest 2019

Kelen
Kelen
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Haladás VSE
Haladás VSE
3/3/2024NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Northwest - 18Kelen SC Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Kelen32%
×Draw25%
Haladás VSE43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kelen
1.31
Haladás VSE
1.54

Haladás VSE creates 18% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 45 away

creates per match

Kelen
1.10
Haladás VSE
1.27

allows per match

Kelen
1.82
Haladás VSE
1.53

finishing

Kelen+0.00on par
Haladás VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kelen ↓

Haladás VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kelen or draw
57%
Kelen or Haladás VSE
75%
Draw or Haladás VSE
68%

Winning margin

Kelen wins by 2+
14%
Haladás VSE wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Kelen 1+ goals
73%
Kelen 2+ goals
38%
Kelen 3+ goals
14%
Haladás VSE 1+ goals
79%
Haladás VSE 2+ goals
45%
Haladás VSE 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Kelen (draw refunded)
43%
Haladás VSE (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kelen at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.82 · 40 matches

Haladás VSE away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kelen attack 1.10 + Haladás VSE defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.31

Haladás VSE attack 1.27 + Kelen defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kelen scores more
32%
level
25%
Haladás VSE scores more
43%

Haladás VSE at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Haladás VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northwest: Kelen 2–3 Haladás VSE

Haladás VSE beat Kelen 3-2 in NB III - Northwest on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Kelen SC Sporttelep in Budapest.