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Haladás VSE vs Kelen — NB III - Northwest 2019

Haladás VSE
Haladás VSE
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Kelen
Kelen
3/2/2025NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Northwest - 18Haladás Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Haladás VSE47%
×Draw24%
Kelen29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haladás VSE
1.73
Kelen
1.30

Haladás VSE creates 33% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 39 away

creates per match

Haladás VSE
1.38
Kelen
0.85

allows per match

Haladás VSE
1.76
Kelen
2.08

finishing

Haladás VSE+0.00on par
Kelen+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haladás VSE ↓

Kelen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Haladás VSE or draw
71%
Haladás VSE or Kelen
76%
Draw or Kelen
53%

Winning margin

Haladás VSE wins by 2+
25%
Kelen wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Haladás VSE 1+ goals
82%
Haladás VSE 2+ goals
52%
Haladás VSE 3+ goals
25%
Kelen 1+ goals
73%
Kelen 2+ goals
37%
Kelen 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Haladás VSE (draw refunded)
62%
Kelen (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haladás VSE at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.76 · 45 matches

Kelen away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.08 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haladás VSE attack 1.38 + Kelen defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.73

Kelen attack 0.85 + Haladás VSE defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Haladás VSE scores more
47%
level
24%
Kelen scores more
29%

Haladás VSE at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Haladás VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northwest: Haladás VSE 3–0 Kelen

Haladás VSE beat Kelen 3-0 in NB III - Northwest on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Haladás Stadion in Szombathely.