Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kelen vs Gyori ETO II — NB III - Northwest 2019

Kelen
Kelen
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Gyori ETO II
Gyori ETO II
3/9/2025NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Northwest - 19Kelen SC Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Kelen34%
×Draw23%
Gyori ETO II43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kelen
1.49
Gyori ETO II
1.71

Gyori ETO II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 45 away

creates per match

Kelen
1.10
Gyori ETO II
1.60

allows per match

Kelen
1.82
Gyori ETO II
1.87

finishing

Kelen+0.00on par
Gyori ETO II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kelen ↓

Gyori ETO II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Kelen or draw
57%
Kelen or Gyori ETO II
77%
Draw or Gyori ETO II
66%

Winning margin

Kelen wins by 2+
16%
Gyori ETO II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Kelen 1+ goals
77%
Kelen 2+ goals
44%
Kelen 3+ goals
19%
Gyori ETO II 1+ goals
82%
Gyori ETO II 2+ goals
51%
Gyori ETO II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Kelen (draw refunded)
44%
Gyori ETO II (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kelen at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.82 · 40 matches

Gyori ETO II away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.87 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kelen attack 1.10 + Gyori ETO II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.49

Gyori ETO II attack 1.60 + Kelen defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kelen scores more
34%
level
23%
Gyori ETO II scores more
43%

Gyori ETO II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gyori ETO II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northwest: Kelen 0–2 Gyori ETO II

Gyori ETO II beat Kelen 2-0 in NB III - Northwest on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Kelen SC Sporttelep in Budapest.