Kelen 0–0 Gyori ETO II: Result & Stats

Kelen

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gyori ETO II

3/5/2023

NB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 24Kelen SC Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Kelen37%

×Draw27%

Gyori ETO II36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KelenExpected goals in this matchGyori ETO II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.22

Kelen

1.23

Gyori ETO II

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

1.08

creates per match

1.32

1.11

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Kelen

1.08

Gyori ETO II

1.32

allows per match

Kelen

1.11

Gyori ETO II

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kelen+0.00on par

Gyori ETO II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kelen ↓

Gyori ETO II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Kelen or draw

64%

Kelen or Gyori ETO II

73%

Draw or Gyori ETO II

63%

Winning margin

Kelen wins by 2+

16%

Gyori ETO II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Kelen 1+ goals

71%

Kelen 2+ goals

35%

Kelen 3+ goals

13%

Gyori ETO II 1+ goals

70%

Gyori ETO II 2+ goals

34%

Gyori ETO II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Kelen (draw refunded)

50%

Gyori ETO II (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kelen at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.11 · 38 matches

Gyori ETO II away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kelen attack 1.08 + Gyori ETO II defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.23

Gyori ETO II attack 1.32 + Kelen defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Kelen scores more

37%

level

27%

Gyori ETO II scores more

36%

Kelen at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Kelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff