Kelen 3–1 Gyirmót II: Result & Stats

Kelen

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Gyirmót II

10/1/2023

NB III - Northwest · Northwest - 9Kelen SC Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Kelen43%

×Draw23%

Gyirmót II33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KelenExpected goals in this matchGyirmót II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.51

Kelen

1.75

Gyirmót II

1.51

Kelen creates 16% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 30 away

1.10

creates per match

1.20

1.82

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Kelen

1.10

Gyirmót II

1.20

allows per match

Kelen

1.82

Gyirmót II

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kelen+0.00on par

Gyirmót II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kelen ↓

Gyirmót II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Kelen or draw

67%

Kelen or Gyirmót II

77%

Draw or Gyirmót II

57%

Winning margin

Kelen wins by 2+

23%

Gyirmót II wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Kelen 1+ goals

83%

Kelen 2+ goals

52%

Kelen 3+ goals

25%

Gyirmót II 1+ goals

78%

Gyirmót II 2+ goals

44%

Gyirmót II 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Kelen (draw refunded)

57%

Gyirmót II (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kelen at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.82 · 40 matches

Gyirmót II away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.40 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kelen attack 1.10 + Gyirmót II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.75

Gyirmót II attack 1.20 + Kelen defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kelen scores more

43%

level

23%

Gyirmót II scores more

33%

Kelen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff