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Kelen vs Gyirmót II — NB III - Southwest 2019

Kelen
Kelen
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gyirmót II
Gyirmót II
4/9/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 30Kelen SC Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Kelen44%
×Draw24%
Gyirmót II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kelen
1.63
Gyirmót II
1.36

Kelen creates 20% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Kelen
1.08
Gyirmót II
1.61

allows per match

Kelen
1.11
Gyirmót II
2.18

finishing

Kelen+0.00on par
Gyirmót II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kelen ↓

Gyirmót II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Kelen or draw
68%
Kelen or Gyirmót II
76%
Draw or Gyirmót II
56%

Winning margin

Kelen wins by 2+
22%
Gyirmót II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kelen 1+ goals
80%
Kelen 2+ goals
48%
Kelen 3+ goals
22%
Gyirmót II 1+ goals
74%
Gyirmót II 2+ goals
39%
Gyirmót II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Kelen (draw refunded)
58%
Gyirmót II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kelen at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.11 · 38 matches

Gyirmót II away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.18 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kelen attack 1.08 + Gyirmót II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.63

Gyirmót II attack 1.61 + Kelen defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kelen scores more
44%
level
24%
Gyirmót II scores more
32%

Kelen at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Kelen 1–0 Gyirmót II

Kelen beat Gyirmót II 1-0 in NB III - Southwest on April 9, 2023.

The match was played at Kelen SC Sporttelep in Budapest.