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Kelen vs Csornai SE — NB III - Northwest 2019

Kelen
Kelen
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Csornai SE
Csornai SE
5/12/2024NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Northwest - 28Kelen SC Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kelen46%
×Draw24%
Csornai SE31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kelen
1.72
Csornai SE
1.38

Kelen creates 25% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 15 away

creates per match

Kelen
1.10
Csornai SE
0.93

allows per match

Kelen
1.82
Csornai SE
2.33

finishing

Kelen+0.00on par
Csornai SE+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kelen ↓

Csornai SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kelen or draw
69%
Kelen or Csornai SE
76%
Draw or Csornai SE
54%

Winning margin

Kelen wins by 2+
24%
Csornai SE wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kelen 1+ goals
82%
Kelen 2+ goals
51%
Kelen 3+ goals
25%
Csornai SE 1+ goals
75%
Csornai SE 2+ goals
40%
Csornai SE 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Kelen (draw refunded)
60%
Csornai SE (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kelen at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.82 · 40 matches

Csornai SE away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kelen attack 1.10 + Csornai SE defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.72

Csornai SE attack 0.93 + Kelen defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kelen scores more
46%
level
24%
Csornai SE scores more
31%

Kelen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kelen vs Csornai SE

Csornai SE beat Kelen 1-0 in NB III - Northwest on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Kelen SC Sporttelep in Budapest.