Kelen 1–1 Csornai SE: Result & Stats

Kelen

FT

1 – 1

Csornai SE

2/12/2023

NB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 21Kelen SC Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kelen55%

×Draw23%

Csornai SE22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KelenExpected goals in this matchCsornai SE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.06

Kelen

1.83

Csornai SE

1.06

Kelen creates 73% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

1.08

creates per match

1.00

1.11

allows per match

2.58

creates per match

Kelen

1.08

Csornai SE

1.00

allows per match

Kelen

1.11

Csornai SE

2.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kelen+0.00on par

Csornai SE+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kelen ↓

Csornai SE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Kelen or draw

78%

Kelen or Csornai SE

77%

Draw or Csornai SE

45%

Winning margin

Kelen wins by 2+

31%

Csornai SE wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Kelen 1+ goals

84%

Kelen 2+ goals

54%

Kelen 3+ goals

28%

Csornai SE 1+ goals

65%

Csornai SE 2+ goals

29%

Csornai SE 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Kelen (draw refunded)

72%

Csornai SE (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kelen at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.11 · 38 matches

Csornai SE away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kelen attack 1.08 + Csornai SE defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 1.83

Csornai SE attack 1.00 + Kelen defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kelen scores more

55%

level

23%

Csornai SE scores more

22%

Kelen at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff