Keflavik 2–2 Valur Reykjavik: Result & Stats | Cup

Keflavik

AET

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Valur Reykjavik

Gabríel Aron Sævarsson 120'

D. Valsson 57'

Ásgeir Páll Magnússon 38'

J. Jónsson 98'

G. Guðmundsson 68' (OG)

P. Pedersen 33'

6/9/2024

Cup · Quarter-finalsHS Orku völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Keflavik64%

×Draw17%

Valur Reykjavik19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KeflavikExpected goals in this matchValur Reykjavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.77

1.48

Keflavik

2.77

Valur Reykjavik

1.48

Keflavik creates 87% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

3.75

creates per match

2.20

0.75

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Keflavik

3.75

Valur Reykjavik

2.20

allows per match

Keflavik

0.75

Valur Reykjavik

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Keflavik+0.00on par

Valur Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Keflavik ↓

Valur Reykjavik →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–04%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Keflavik or draw

81%

Keflavik or Valur Reykjavik

83%

Draw or Valur Reykjavik

36%

Winning margin

Keflavik wins by 2+

43%

Valur Reykjavik wins by 2+

Team goals

Keflavik 1+ goals

94%

Keflavik 2+ goals

76%

Keflavik 3+ goals

51%

Valur Reykjavik 1+ goals

77%

Valur Reykjavik 2+ goals

43%

Valur Reykjavik 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Keflavik (draw refunded)

77%

Valur Reykjavik (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Keflavik at home — creates 3.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Valur Reykjavik away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Keflavik attack 3.75 + Valur Reykjavik defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.77

Valur Reykjavik attack 2.20 + Keflavik defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

Keflavik scores more

64%

level

17%

Valur Reykjavik scores more

19%

Keflavik at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Keflavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

P. Pedersen

38'

Ásgeir Páll Magnússon

57'

D. Valsson

63'

A. Pálsson← G. Tryggvason

68'

G. GuðmundssonOwn goal

75'

E. Osmani← A. Guðmundsson

83'

K. Sigfússon← V. Hákonarson

83'

G. Sigurðsson← B. Antonsson

90'

H. Gunnarsson← B. Sævarsson

98'

J. Jónsson

99'

G. Unnarsson← P. Pedersen

106'

Ó. Einarsson← S. Friðriksson

113'

Gabríel Aron Sævarsson← A. Jóhannesson

120'

A. Palsson

120'

Gabríel Aron Sævarsson

Keflavik

Valur

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

🥅

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: H. Guðmundsson

75'▲E. Osmani←▼A. Guðmundsson

83'▲K. Sigfússon←▼V. Hákonarson

106'▲Ó. Einarsson←▼S. Friðriksson

113'▲Gabríel Aron Sævarsson←▼A. Jóhannesson

Keflavik substitutes

OsmaniSigfússonEinarssonSævarssonHákonarsonKovtunGissurarson

Manager: A. Grétarsson

63'▲A. Pálsson←▼G. Tryggvason

83'▲G. Sigurðsson←▼B. Antonsson

90'▲H. Gunnarsson←▼B. Sævarsson

99'▲G. Unnarsson←▼P. Pedersen

Valur Reykjavik substitutes

PálssonSigurðssonGunnarssonUnnarssonHeimissonFinsenÁgústsson