Keflavik 1–1 Valur Reykjavik: Result & Stats

Keflavik

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Valur Reykjavik

S. Kamel 90+5'

B. Sævarsson 90+6'

8/13/2023

Úrvalsdeild · Round 19HS Orku völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Keflavik36%

×Draw23%

Valur Reykjavik40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KeflavikExpected goals in this matchValur Reykjavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.66

Keflavik

1.57

Valur Reykjavik

1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 24 away

1.31

creates per match

1.50

1.81

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Keflavik

1.31

Valur Reykjavik

1.50

allows per match

Keflavik

1.81

Valur Reykjavik

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Keflavik+0.00on par

Valur Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Keflavik ↓

Valur Reykjavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Keflavik or draw

60%

Keflavik or Valur Reykjavik

77%

Draw or Valur Reykjavik

64%

Winning margin

Keflavik wins by 2+

18%

Valur Reykjavik wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Keflavik 1+ goals

79%

Keflavik 2+ goals

46%

Keflavik 3+ goals

21%

Valur Reykjavik 1+ goals

81%

Valur Reykjavik 2+ goals

49%

Valur Reykjavik 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Keflavik (draw refunded)

48%

Valur Reykjavik (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Keflavik at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Valur Reykjavik away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Keflavik attack 1.31 + Valur Reykjavik defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.57

Valur Reykjavik attack 1.50 + Keflavik defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Keflavik scores more

36%

level

23%

Valur Reykjavik scores more

40%

Valur Reykjavik at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Valur Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

S. Kamel

58'

G. Tryggvason← A. Pálsson

71'

Nacho Heras← M. Magnússon

78'

A. Jóhannsson← O. Kjartansson

78'

B. Heimisson← E. Helgason

80'

B. Heimisson

80'

Ásgeir Páll Magnússon← D. Valsson

86'

R. Gegedosh← F. Elvarsson

88'

A. Bjarnason← T. Haraldsson

90+5'

S. Kamel↳ Ásgeir Páll Magnússon

90+6'

B. Sævarsson↳ P. Pedersen

Keflavik

Valur

1

Schram

2

⚽

Sævarsson

15

Eyjólfsso

4

▼

11

3

10

12

▼

Haraldsso

19

▼

Kjartanss

23

▼

Pálsson

9

A

Pedersen

13

Rosenørn

17

Guðmundss

5

▼

Magnússon

50

Kovtun

3

Jóhanness

25

▼

Elvarsson

6

Magnússon

18

Bjarnason

23

⚽

Kamel

10

▼

Valsson

11

Ljubicic

Manager: S. Eyjólfsson

71'▲Nacho Heras←▼M. Magnússon

80'▲Ásgeir Páll Magnússon←▼D. Valsson

86'▲R. Gegedosh←▼F. Elvarsson

Keflavik substitutes

4Heras22Magnússon89Gegedosh7Hafþórsson19Osmani24Magnússon99Hákonarson

Manager: A. Grétarsson

58'▲G. Tryggvason←▼A. Pálsson

78'▲A. Jóhannsson←▼O. Kjartansson

78'▲B. Heimisson←▼E. Helgason

88'▲A. Bjarnason←▼T. Haraldsson

Valur Reykjavik substitutes

14Tryggvason22Jóhannsson5Heimisson99Bjarnason7Sigurðsson17Heimisson25Jóhannesson