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Keflavik vs KA Akureyri — Úrvalsdeild 2025

Keflavik
Keflavik
Preview
18:00
KA Akureyri
KA Akureyri
8/5/2026ÚrvalsdeildÚrvalsdeild · Round 17
41%
Keflavik
model favours
41%23%35%
1–1
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
65%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Keflavik41%
×Draw23%
KA Akureyri35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Keflavik
1.70
KA Akureyri
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 21 away

creates per match

Keflavik
1.15
KA Akureyri
1.43

allows per match

Keflavik
1.69
KA Akureyri
2.24

finishing

Keflavik+0.00on par
KA Akureyri+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Keflavik ↓

KA Akureyri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Keflavik or draw
65%
Keflavik or KA Akureyri
77%
Draw or KA Akureyri
59%

Winning margin

Keflavik wins by 2+
21%
KA Akureyri wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Keflavik 1+ goals
82%
Keflavik 2+ goals
51%
Keflavik 3+ goals
24%
KA Akureyri 1+ goals
79%
KA Akureyri 2+ goals
46%
KA Akureyri 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Keflavik (draw refunded)
54%
KA Akureyri (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Keflavik at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

KA Akureyri away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Keflavik attack 1.15 + KA Akureyri defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.70

KA Akureyri attack 1.43 + Keflavik defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Keflavik scores more
41%
level
23%
KA Akureyri scores more
35%

Keflavik at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Keflavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Keflavik
LDWDL
Akureyri
WLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Keflavik host KA Akureyri

August 5, 2026: Keflavik take on KA Akureyri in Úrvalsdeild. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.