KA Akureyri 1–2 Keflavik: Result & Stats

KA Akureyri

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Keflavik

O. Heidarsson 31'

S. Ljubicic 60'

D. Aronsson 41'

4/26/2026

Úrvalsdeild · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

KA Akureyri49%

×Draw23%

Keflavik28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KA AkureyriExpected goals in this matchKeflavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.34

KA Akureyri

1.85

Keflavik

1.34

KA Akureyri creates 38% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 16 away

1.82

creates per match

1.25

1.43

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

KA Akureyri

1.82

Keflavik

1.25

allows per match

KA Akureyri

1.43

Keflavik

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KA Akureyri+0.00on par

Keflavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KA Akureyri ↓

Keflavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

KA Akureyri or draw

72%

KA Akureyri or Keflavik

77%

Draw or Keflavik

51%

Winning margin

KA Akureyri wins by 2+

27%

Keflavik wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

KA Akureyri 1+ goals

84%

KA Akureyri 2+ goals

55%

KA Akureyri 3+ goals

28%

Keflavik 1+ goals

74%

Keflavik 2+ goals

39%

Keflavik 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

KA Akureyri (draw refunded)

64%

Keflavik (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KA Akureyri at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

Keflavik away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KA Akureyri attack 1.82 + Keflavik defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.85

Keflavik attack 1.25 + KA Akureyri defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

KA Akureyri scores more

49%

level

23%

Keflavik scores more

28%

KA Akureyri at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "KA Akureyri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

O. Heidarsson↳ J. Pedersen

41'

D. Aronsson↳ D. Valsson

45+1'

S. Kroon

46'

H. Steingrimsson← V. Saevarsson

46'

M. M. Petursson← D. Djuric

51'

A. Magnusson

60'

S. Ljubicic↳ E. Ragnarsson

61'

J. Robertsson← S. Hauksson

61'

M. Mudrazija← D. Valsson

64'

B. Baxter

72'

J. S. Edmundsson← D. Montiel

82'

B. Baldursson← G. Hrafnkelsson

84'

H. Al Ghoul← M. Al Ghoul

84'

E. Bjarnason← B. Baxter

90+2'

H. Al Ghoul

KA

Keflavik

1

Magnusson

3

Johanness

20

Brigic

5

⚽

Aronsson

22

Magnusson

8

▼

Baxter

6

Magnusson

23

A

Ragnarsso

7

A

▼

Valsson

11

▼

Ghoul

10

⚽

Ljubicic

13

Audunsson

30

▼

28

4

17

44

▼

Saevarsso

8

A

Pedersen

15

⚽

Heidarsso

14

▼

Djuric

20

▼

Montiel

9

▼

Hauksson

Manager: Hallgrimur Jonasson

46'▲H. Steingrimsson←▼V. Saevarsson

46'▲M. M. Petursson←▼D. Djuric

61'▲J. Robertsson←▼S. Hauksson

72'▲J. S. Edmundsson←▼D. Montiel

82'▲B. Baldursson←▼G. Hrafnkelsson

KA Akureyri substitutes

1Thorhallsson7Edmundsson10Steingrimsson16Robertsson21Thordarson23Petursson3Gautason19Baldursson91Kristinsson

Manager: Haraldur Gudmundsson

61'▲M. Mudrazija←▼D. Valsson

84'▲H. Al Ghoul←▼M. Al Ghoul

84'▲E. Bjarnason←▼B. Baxter

Keflavik substitutes

30Basic9Ghoul42Brynjarsson18Bjarnason14Mudrazija47Karlsson28Traustason26Kristjansson15Adalbjorssnos