Keflavik 3–4 KA Akureyri: Result & Stats

Keflavik

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

KA Akureyri

Ásgeir Páll Magnússon 72'

V. Hafþórsson 59'

S. Guðmundsson 14'

Hallgrímur Steingrímsson 73'

S. Hauksson 63'

B. Aðalsteinsson 45', 43'

7/24/2023

Úrvalsdeild · Round 16HS Orku völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Keflavik41%

×Draw23%

KA Akureyri37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KeflavikExpected goals in this matchKA Akureyri

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.67

Keflavik

1.77

KA Akureyri

1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 23 away

1.31

creates per match

1.52

1.81

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Keflavik

1.31

KA Akureyri

1.52

allows per match

Keflavik

1.81

KA Akureyri

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Keflavik+0.00on par

KA Akureyri+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Keflavik ↓

KA Akureyri →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Keflavik or draw

63%

Keflavik or KA Akureyri

77%

Draw or KA Akureyri

59%

Winning margin

Keflavik wins by 2+

21%

KA Akureyri wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Keflavik 1+ goals

83%

Keflavik 2+ goals

53%

Keflavik 3+ goals

26%

KA Akureyri 1+ goals

81%

KA Akureyri 2+ goals

50%

KA Akureyri 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Keflavik (draw refunded)

53%

KA Akureyri (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Keflavik at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

KA Akureyri away — creates 1.52, concedes 2.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Keflavik attack 1.31 + KA Akureyri defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.77

KA Akureyri attack 1.52 + Keflavik defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Keflavik scores more

41%

level

23%

KA Akureyri scores more

37%

Keflavik at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Keflavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

S. Guðmundsson↳ S. Kamel

17'

T. Thorisson

43'

B. Aðalsteinsson↳ Í. Árnason

45'

B. Aðalsteinsson↳ Hallgrímur Steingrímsson

51'

M. Magnusson

52'

A. Stefánsson← Í. Árnason

59'

K. Jajalo

59'

V. Hafþórsson↳ F. Elvarsson

63'

S. Hauksson↳ Hallgrímur Steingrímsson

66'

Hrannar Steingrímsson← Þ. Þórisson

66'

J. Árnason← H. Willard

72'

S. Ljubicic← E. Bjarnason

72'

E. Osmani← S. Guðmundsson

72'

Ásgeir Páll Magnússon↳ D. Valsson

73'

Hallgrímur Steingrímsson↳ S. Hauksson

79'

P. Petersen← E. Aðalsteinsson

79'

Á. Sigurgeirsson← Hallgrímur Steingrímsson

85'

A. Elisson

87'

Í. Ívarsson← V. Hafþórsson

89'

S. Eyjolfsson

Keflavik

KA

12

Jajalo

3

Brković

33

Elísson

5

A

▼

Árnason

27

▼

Þórisson

7

Hafsteins

77

⚽2

Aðalstein

30

⚽A

Hauksson

10

⚽A

▼

Steingrím

9

▼

Aðalstei

37

▼

13

5

50

22

⚽

Magnússon

3

Jóhanness

25

A

Elvarsson

18

▼

Bjarnason

23

A

Kamel

10

A

Valsson

16

⚽

▼

Guðmundss

7

⚽

▼

Hafþórsso

Manager: S. Eyjólfsson

72'▲S. Ljubicic←▼E. Bjarnason

72'▲E. Osmani←▼S. Guðmundsson

87'▲Í. Ívarsson←▼V. Hafþórsson

Keflavik substitutes

11Ljubicic19Osmani2Ívarsson24Magnússon14Stefánsson9Gylfason38Arnarsson

Manager: H. Jónasson

52'▲A. Stefánsson←▼Í. Árnason

66'▲Hrannar Steingrímsson←▼Þ. Þórisson

66'▲J. Árnason←▼H. Willard

79'▲P. Petersen←▼E. Aðalsteinsson

79'▲Á. Sigurgeirsson←▼Hallgrímur Steingrímsson

KA Akureyri substitutes

14Stefánsson22Steingrímsson29Árnason8Petersen11Sigurgeirsson26Støle13Auðunsson