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Keflavik vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar — Úrvalsdeild 2025

Keflavik
Keflavik
Preview
17:00
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
8/23/2026ÚrvalsdeildÚrvalsdeild · Round 20
40%
Keflavik
model favours
40%23%37%
1–1
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
64%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Keflavik40%
×Draw23%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Keflavik
1.65
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 22 away

creates per match

Keflavik
1.29
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.32

allows per match

Keflavik
1.86
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.00

finishing

Keflavik+0.00on par
IBV Vestmannaeyjar+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Keflavik ↓

IBV Vestmannaeyjar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Keflavik or draw
63%
Keflavik or IBV Vestmannaeyjar
77%
Draw or IBV Vestmannaeyjar
60%

Winning margin

Keflavik wins by 2+
20%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Keflavik 1+ goals
81%
Keflavik 2+ goals
49%
Keflavik 3+ goals
23%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1+ goals
80%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2+ goals
47%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Keflavik (draw refunded)
52%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Keflavik at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

IBV Vestmannaeyjar away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.00 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Keflavik attack 1.29 + IBV Vestmannaeyjar defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

IBV Vestmannaeyjar attack 1.32 + Keflavik defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Keflavik scores more
40%
level
23%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar scores more
37%

Keflavik at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Keflavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Keflavik
LDWDL
Vestmannaeyjar
LWDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Keflavik face IBV Vestmannaeyjar (Úrvalsdeild)

Úrvalsdeild returns with Keflavik hosting IBV Vestmannaeyjar. Match starts August 23, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.