Keflavik 3–2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar: Result & Stats

Keflavik

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

Á. Orrason 53'

S. Kamel 49'

M. Mladen 7'

B. Gunnarsson 82'

H. Ragnarsson 40'

8/30/2024

1. Deild · Round 20HS Orku völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Keflavik50%

×Draw20%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KeflavikExpected goals in this matchIBV Vestmannaeyjar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.69

Keflavik

2.25

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

1.69

Keflavik creates 33% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 3 away

2.84

creates per match

2.00

1.37

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Keflavik

2.84

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

2.00

allows per match

Keflavik

1.37

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Keflavik+0.00on par

IBV Vestmannaeyjar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Keflavik ↓

IBV Vestmannaeyjar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Keflavik or draw

71%

Keflavik or IBV Vestmannaeyjar

80%

Draw or IBV Vestmannaeyjar

50%

Winning margin

Keflavik wins by 2+

30%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Keflavik 1+ goals

89%

Keflavik 2+ goals

65%

Keflavik 3+ goals

39%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1+ goals

82%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2+ goals

50%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Keflavik (draw refunded)

63%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Keflavik at home — creates 2.84, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

IBV Vestmannaeyjar away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Keflavik attack 2.84 + IBV Vestmannaeyjar defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.25

IBV Vestmannaeyjar attack 2.00 + Keflavik defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Keflavik scores more

50%

level

20%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar scores more

29%

Keflavik at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Keflavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

34'

40'

49'

52'

53'

57'

A. Hilmarsson← S. Hjaltested

57'

B. Gunnarsson← F. Friðriksson

71'

M. Diaw← S. Kamel

75'

M. Diaw

78'

S. Friðriksson← F. Elvarsson

80'

E. Runarsson

82'

85'

85'

85'

90'

V. Hákonarson← K. Sigfússon

Keflavik

IBV

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Kamel

▼

Sigfússon

⚽

Mladen

Manager: H. Guðmundsson

71'▲M. Diaw←▼S. Kamel

78'▲S. Friðriksson←▼F. Elvarsson

90'▲V. Hákonarson←▼K. Sigfússon

Keflavik substitutes

DiawFriðrikssonHákonarsonGuðmundssonEysteinssonGissurarsonHeras

Manager: H. Hreiðarsson

57'▲A. Hilmarsson←▼S. Hjaltested

57'▲B. Gunnarsson←▼F. Friðriksson

IBV Vestmannaeyjar substitutes

HilmarssonGunnarssonHilmarssonBarðdalElíassonValgeirssonÞorvarðarson

1. Deild: Keflavik 3–2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar

Keflavik beat IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3-2 in 1. Deild on August 30, 2024.

Goals: M. Mladen (7'), H. Ragnarsson (40'), S. Kamel (49'), Á. Orrason (53'), B. Gunnarsson (82').

The match was played at HS Orku völlurinn in Keflavík, Reykjanesbær.

Keflavik vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar — 1. Deild 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

1. Deild: Keflavik 3–2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar