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Keflavik vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar — League #168 2026

Keflavik
Keflavik
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
E. Ragnarsson 40'
2/15/2025League #168League #168 · Group Stage - 2Nettóhöllin gervigras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Keflavik60%
×Draw21%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Keflavik
2.10
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.09

Keflavik creates 93% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Keflavik
2.71
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0.75

allows per match

Keflavik
1.43
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.50

finishing

Keflavik+0.00on par
IBV Vestmannaeyjar+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Keflavik ↓

IBV Vestmannaeyjar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Keflavik or draw
81%
Keflavik or IBV Vestmannaeyjar
79%
Draw or IBV Vestmannaeyjar
40%

Winning margin

Keflavik wins by 2+
37%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Keflavik 1+ goals
88%
Keflavik 2+ goals
62%
Keflavik 3+ goals
35%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1+ goals
66%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2+ goals
30%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Keflavik (draw refunded)
76%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Keflavik at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

IBV Vestmannaeyjar away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Keflavik attack 2.71 + IBV Vestmannaeyjar defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.10

IBV Vestmannaeyjar attack 0.75 + Keflavik defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Keflavik scores more
60%
level
21%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar scores more
19%

Keflavik at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Keflavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
O. Sowe
40'
E. Ragnarsson
45'
H. Magnusson← H. Magnusson
45'
J. Eliasson← J. Eliasson
45'
O. Sowe← B. Hlynsson
51'
R. Gissurarson← R. Gissurarson
67'
B. B. Gudnason← B. B. Gudnason
67'
E. Bjarnason← S. Fridriksson
67'
A. Kristinsson
75'
G. Gudmundsson
80'
A. O. Fridriksson← A. O. Fridriksson
83'
G. Saevarsson← G. Saevarsson
83'
V. Hakonarson← V. Hakonarson
88'
S. Ljubicic← B. Brynjarsson
88'
O. Heidarsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Keflavik vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar

Keflavik beat IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1-0 in League #168 on February 15, 2025.

Goals: E. Ragnarsson (40').

The match was played at Nettóhöllin gervigras in Keflavík, Reykjanesbær.