Keflavik 2–3 FH hafnarfjordur: Result & Stats

Keflavik

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

FH hafnarfjordur

A. Pálsson 32'

D. Valsson 19'

Ú. Björnsson 57'

O. Heiðarsson 55'

G. Kristjánsson 38'

10/15/2022

Úrvalsdeild · Relegation Round - 3HS Orku völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Keflavik40%

×Draw22%

FH hafnarfjordur38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KeflavikExpected goals in this matchFH hafnarfjordur

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.78

Keflavik

1.83

FH hafnarfjordur

1.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 28 away

1.37

creates per match

1.68

1.89

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Keflavik

1.37

FH hafnarfjordur

1.68

allows per match

Keflavik

1.89

FH hafnarfjordur

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Keflavik+0.00on par

FH hafnarfjordur+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Keflavik ↓

FH hafnarfjordur →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Keflavik or draw

62%

Keflavik or FH hafnarfjordur

78%

Draw or FH hafnarfjordur

60%

Winning margin

Keflavik wins by 2+

21%

FH hafnarfjordur wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Keflavik 1+ goals

84%

Keflavik 2+ goals

54%

Keflavik 3+ goals

28%

FH hafnarfjordur 1+ goals

83%

FH hafnarfjordur 2+ goals

53%

FH hafnarfjordur 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Keflavik (draw refunded)

51%

FH hafnarfjordur (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Keflavik at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

FH hafnarfjordur away — creates 1.68, concedes 2.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Keflavik attack 1.37 + FH hafnarfjordur defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.83

FH hafnarfjordur attack 1.68 + Keflavik defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Keflavik scores more

40%

level

22%

FH hafnarfjordur scores more

38%

Keflavik at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Keflavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

32'

38'

42'

46'

V. Dimitrijevic← D. Jóhannsson

50'

P. Johannesen

55'

O. Heiðarsson

57'

Ú. Björnsson

65'

E. Bjarnason← D. Valsson

82'

M. Vilhjálmsson← Ú. Björnsson

84'

A. Róbertsson← P. Johannesen

90+3'

D. Hatakka

90'

S. Guðmundsson← K. Williams

90'

A. Jóhannesson← A. Pálsson

Keflavik

FH

32

Guðmundss

16

⚽

Kristjáns

4

Guðmundss

22

⚽

27

6

20

10

8

11

▼

Jóhannsso

33

⚽

▼

1

25

26

7

6

77

▼

Johannese

22

Magnússon

14

⚽

▼

Valsson

10

▼

Williams

24

⚽

▼

Pálsson

23

Gibbs

Manager: S. Eyjólfsson

65'▲E. Bjarnason←▼D. Valsson

84'▲A. Róbertsson←▼P. Johannesen

90'▲S. Guðmundsson←▼K. Williams

90'▲A. Jóhannesson←▼A. Pálsson

Keflavik substitutes

18Bjarnason9Róbertsson16Guðmundsson8Jóhannesson11Jónsson12Gissurarson17Hákonarson

Manager: E. Guðjohnsen

46'▲V. Dimitrijevic←▼D. Jóhannsson

82'▲M. Vilhjálmsson←▼Ú. Björnsson

FH hafnarfjordur substitutes

29Dimitrijevic9Vilhjálmsson2Þórðarson3Ásgrímsson7Lennon12Hermannsson23Hilmarsson

Match Recap: Keflavik vs FH hafnarfjordur

FH hafnarfjordur beat Keflavik 3-2 in Úrvalsdeild on October 15, 2022.

Goals: D. Valsson (19'), A. Pálsson (32'), G. Kristjánsson (38'), O. Heiðarsson (55'), Ú. Björnsson (57').

The match was played at HS Orku völlurinn in Keflavík, Reykjanesbær.

Keflavik vs FH hafnarfjordur — Úrvalsdeild 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Keflavik vs FH hafnarfjordur