FH hafnarfjordur 1–4 Keflavik: Result & Stats

FH hafnarfjordur

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Keflavik

Unknown 71'

O. Einarsson 90'

S. Kamel 59'

S. Ljubicic 40', 35' (pen)

2/26/2024

League #168 · Group Stage - 3Skessan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FH hafnarfjordur30%

×Draw19%

Keflavik52%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FH hafnarfjordurExpected goals in this matchKeflavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

2.65

FH hafnarfjordur

2.00

Keflavik

2.65

Keflavik creates 32% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

2.00

creates per match

2.80

2.50

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

FH hafnarfjordur

2.00

Keflavik

2.80

allows per match

FH hafnarfjordur

2.50

Keflavik

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FH hafnarfjordur+0.00on par

Keflavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FH hafnarfjordur ↓

Keflavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–25%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

FH hafnarfjordur or draw

48%

FH hafnarfjordur or Keflavik

81%

Draw or Keflavik

70%

Winning margin

FH hafnarfjordur wins by 2+

15%

Keflavik wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

FH hafnarfjordur 1+ goals

86%

FH hafnarfjordur 2+ goals

59%

FH hafnarfjordur 3+ goals

32%

Keflavik 1+ goals

93%

Keflavik 2+ goals

74%

Keflavik 3+ goals

48%

Draw no bet

FH hafnarfjordur (draw refunded)

36%

Keflavik (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FH hafnarfjordur at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Keflavik away — creates 2.80, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FH hafnarfjordur attack 2.00 + Keflavik defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Keflavik attack 2.80 + FH hafnarfjordur defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FH hafnarfjordur scores more

30%

level

19%

Keflavik scores more

52%

Keflavik at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Keflavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

A. Thordarson

35'

D. Brkovic

35'

S. LjubicicPenalty

40'

50'

50'

57'

59'

60'

L. H. Robertsson← V. Dimitrijevic

60'

M. Diaw← D. Valsson

70'

F. Margeirsson← H. Asgrimsson

71'

78'

D. Arnarsson

78'

S. Kamel

81'

O. Einarsson← O. Einarsson

90'

O. Einarsson

90+1'

S. Ljubicic← A. Reynisson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff