Kedus Giorgis 1–1 Jimma Aba Jifar: Result & Stats

Kedus Giorgis

FT

1 – 1

Jimma Aba Jifar

4/22/2021

Premier League · Round 20Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Kedus Giorgis50%

×Draw28%

Jimma Aba Jifar21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kedus GiorgisExpected goals in this matchJimma Aba Jifar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.75

Kedus Giorgis

1.33

Jimma Aba Jifar

0.75

Kedus Giorgis creates 77% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 35 away

1.33

creates per match

0.71

0.79

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Kedus Giorgis

1.33

Jimma Aba Jifar

0.71

allows per match

Kedus Giorgis

0.79

Jimma Aba Jifar

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kedus Giorgis+0.00on par

Jimma Aba Jifar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kedus Giorgis ↓

Jimma Aba Jifar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Kedus Giorgis or draw

79%

Kedus Giorgis or Jimma Aba Jifar

72%

Draw or Jimma Aba Jifar

50%

Winning margin

Kedus Giorgis wins by 2+

24%

Jimma Aba Jifar wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Kedus Giorgis 1+ goals

74%

Kedus Giorgis 2+ goals

38%

Kedus Giorgis 3+ goals

15%

Jimma Aba Jifar 1+ goals

53%

Jimma Aba Jifar 2+ goals

17%

Jimma Aba Jifar 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Kedus Giorgis (draw refunded)

71%

Jimma Aba Jifar (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kedus Giorgis at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.79 · 102 matches

Jimma Aba Jifar away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kedus Giorgis attack 1.33 + Jimma Aba Jifar defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Jimma Aba Jifar attack 0.71 + Kedus Giorgis defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kedus Giorgis scores more

50%

level

28%

Jimma Aba Jifar scores more

21%

Kedus Giorgis at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kedus Giorgis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff