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Jimma Aba Jifar vs Kedus Giorgis — Premier League 2019

Jimma Aba Jifar
Jimma Aba Jifar
FT
2 – 3
Kedus Giorgis
Kedus Giorgis
1/15/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Jimma Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Jimma Aba Jifar21%
×Draw28%
Kedus Giorgis51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jimma Aba Jifar
0.77
Kedus Giorgis
1.36

Kedus Giorgis creates 77% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 101 away

creates per match

Jimma Aba Jifar
0.78
Kedus Giorgis
1.29

allows per match

Jimma Aba Jifar
1.44
Kedus Giorgis
0.76

finishing

Jimma Aba Jifar+0.00on par
Kedus Giorgis+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jimma Aba Jifar ↓

Kedus Giorgis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–116%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Jimma Aba Jifar or draw
49%
Jimma Aba Jifar or Kedus Giorgis
72%
Draw or Kedus Giorgis
79%

Winning margin

Jimma Aba Jifar wins by 2+
6%
Kedus Giorgis wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Jimma Aba Jifar 1+ goals
54%
Jimma Aba Jifar 2+ goals
18%
Jimma Aba Jifar 3+ goals
4%
Kedus Giorgis 1+ goals
74%
Kedus Giorgis 2+ goals
39%
Kedus Giorgis 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Jimma Aba Jifar (draw refunded)
29%
Kedus Giorgis (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jimma Aba Jifar at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 36 matches

Kedus Giorgis away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.76 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jimma Aba Jifar attack 0.78 + Kedus Giorgis defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.77

Kedus Giorgis attack 1.29 + Jimma Aba Jifar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Jimma Aba Jifar scores more
21%
level
28%
Kedus Giorgis scores more
51%

Kedus Giorgis at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kedus Giorgis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Jimma Aba Jifar 2–3 Kedus Giorgis

Kedus Giorgis beat Jimma Aba Jifar 3-2 in Premier League on January 15, 2021.

The match was played at Jimma Stadium in Jimma.