Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kedus Giorgis vs Hambericho Durame — Premier League 2019

Kedus Giorgis
Kedus Giorgis
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Hambericho Durame
Hambericho Durame
3/9/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kedus Giorgis61%
×Draw24%
Hambericho Durame16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kedus Giorgis
1.70
Hambericho Durame
0.73

Kedus Giorgis creates 133% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 15 away

creates per match

Kedus Giorgis
1.33
Hambericho Durame
0.67

allows per match

Kedus Giorgis
0.79
Hambericho Durame
2.07

finishing

Kedus Giorgis+0.00on par
Hambericho Durame+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kedus Giorgis ↓

Hambericho Durame →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kedus Giorgis or draw
84%
Kedus Giorgis or Hambericho Durame
76%
Draw or Hambericho Durame
39%

Winning margin

Kedus Giorgis wins by 2+
34%
Hambericho Durame wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Kedus Giorgis 1+ goals
82%
Kedus Giorgis 2+ goals
51%
Kedus Giorgis 3+ goals
24%
Hambericho Durame 1+ goals
52%
Hambericho Durame 2+ goals
17%
Hambericho Durame 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kedus Giorgis (draw refunded)
79%
Hambericho Durame (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kedus Giorgis at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.79 · 102 matches

Hambericho Durame away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kedus Giorgis attack 1.33 + Hambericho Durame defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.70

Hambericho Durame attack 0.67 + Kedus Giorgis defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Kedus Giorgis scores more
61%
level
24%
Hambericho Durame scores more
16%

Kedus Giorgis at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Kedus Giorgis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kedus Giorgis vs Hambericho Durame

Kedus Giorgis beat Hambericho Durame 3-1 in Premier League on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Dire Dawa Stadium in Dire Dawa.