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Hambericho Durame vs Kedus Giorgis — Premier League 2019

Hambericho Durame
Hambericho Durame
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kedus Giorgis
Kedus Giorgis
10/13/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hambericho Durame11%
×Draw25%
Kedus Giorgis64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hambericho Durame
0.45
Kedus Giorgis
1.51

Kedus Giorgis creates 236% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 101 away

creates per match

Hambericho Durame
0.13
Kedus Giorgis
1.29

allows per match

Hambericho Durame
1.73
Kedus Giorgis
0.76

finishing

Hambericho Durame+0.00on par
Kedus Giorgis+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hambericho Durame ↓

Kedus Giorgis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–121%
0–216%
0–38%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Hambericho Durame or draw
36%
Hambericho Durame or Kedus Giorgis
75%
Draw or Kedus Giorgis
89%

Winning margin

Hambericho Durame wins by 2+
2%
Kedus Giorgis wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Hambericho Durame 1+ goals
36%
Hambericho Durame 2+ goals
8%
Hambericho Durame 3+ goals
1%
Kedus Giorgis 1+ goals
78%
Kedus Giorgis 2+ goals
44%
Kedus Giorgis 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Hambericho Durame (draw refunded)
15%
Kedus Giorgis (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hambericho Durame at home — creates 0.13, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Kedus Giorgis away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.76 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hambericho Durame attack 0.13 + Kedus Giorgis defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.45

Kedus Giorgis attack 1.29 + Hambericho Durame defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Hambericho Durame scores more
11%
level
25%
Kedus Giorgis scores more
64%

Kedus Giorgis at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Kedus Giorgis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hambericho Durame vs Kedus Giorgis

Kedus Giorgis beat Hambericho Durame 2-1 in Premier League on October 13, 2023.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.