Kedus Giorgis 1–2 Fasil Ketema: Result & Stats

Kedus Giorgis

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Fasil Ketema

9/22/2024

Premier League · Round 1Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Kedus Giorgis39%

×Draw30%

Fasil Ketema30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kedus GiorgisExpected goals in this matchFasil Ketema

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.94

Kedus Giorgis

1.11

Fasil Ketema

0.94

Kedus Giorgis creates 18% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 102 away

1.33

creates per match

1.08

0.79

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Kedus Giorgis

1.33

Fasil Ketema

1.08

allows per match

Kedus Giorgis

0.79

Fasil Ketema

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kedus Giorgis+0.00on par

Fasil Ketema+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kedus Giorgis ↓

Fasil Ketema →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Kedus Giorgis or draw

70%

Kedus Giorgis or Fasil Ketema

70%

Draw or Fasil Ketema

61%

Winning margin

Kedus Giorgis wins by 2+

16%

Fasil Ketema wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Kedus Giorgis 1+ goals

67%

Kedus Giorgis 2+ goals

30%

Kedus Giorgis 3+ goals

10%

Fasil Ketema 1+ goals

61%

Fasil Ketema 2+ goals

24%

Fasil Ketema 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Kedus Giorgis (draw refunded)

56%

Fasil Ketema (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kedus Giorgis at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.79 · 102 matches

Fasil Ketema away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.89 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kedus Giorgis attack 1.33 + Fasil Ketema defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.11

Fasil Ketema attack 1.08 + Kedus Giorgis defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kedus Giorgis scores more

39%

level

30%

Fasil Ketema scores more

30%

Kedus Giorgis at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kedus Giorgis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff