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Fasil Ketema vs Kedus Giorgis — Premier League 2019

Fasil Ketema
Fasil Ketema
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kedus Giorgis
Kedus Giorgis
2/1/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Fasiledes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Fasil Ketema34%
×Draw30%
Kedus Giorgis35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fasil Ketema
1.02
Kedus Giorgis
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 101 away

creates per match

Fasil Ketema
1.28
Kedus Giorgis
1.29

allows per match

Fasil Ketema
0.78
Kedus Giorgis
0.76

finishing

Fasil Ketema+0.00on par
Kedus Giorgis+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fasil Ketema ↓

Kedus Giorgis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Fasil Ketema or draw
65%
Fasil Ketema or Kedus Giorgis
70%
Draw or Kedus Giorgis
66%

Winning margin

Fasil Ketema wins by 2+
13%
Kedus Giorgis wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Fasil Ketema 1+ goals
64%
Fasil Ketema 2+ goals
27%
Fasil Ketema 3+ goals
8%
Kedus Giorgis 1+ goals
65%
Kedus Giorgis 2+ goals
28%
Kedus Giorgis 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fasil Ketema (draw refunded)
49%
Kedus Giorgis (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fasil Ketema at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.78 · 101 matches

Kedus Giorgis away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.76 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fasil Ketema attack 1.28 + Kedus Giorgis defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.02

Kedus Giorgis attack 1.29 + Fasil Ketema defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Fasil Ketema scores more
34%
level
30%
Kedus Giorgis scores more
35%

Kedus Giorgis at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Kedus Giorgis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Fasil Ketema 1–0 Kedus Giorgis

Fasil Ketema beat Kedus Giorgis 1-0 in Premier League on February 1, 2026.

The match was played at Fasiledes Stadium in Gonder.