Kedus Giorgis 1–3 Ethiopia Bunna: Result & Stats

Kedus Giorgis

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Ethiopia Bunna

4/26/2026

Premier League · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Kedus Giorgis41%

×Draw29%

Ethiopia Bunna29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kedus GiorgisExpected goals in this matchEthiopia Bunna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.95

Kedus Giorgis

1.18

Ethiopia Bunna

0.95

Kedus Giorgis creates 24% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 102 away

1.33

creates per match

1.11

0.79

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Kedus Giorgis

1.33

Ethiopia Bunna

1.11

allows per match

Kedus Giorgis

0.79

Ethiopia Bunna

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kedus Giorgis+0.00on par

Ethiopia Bunna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kedus Giorgis ↓

Ethiopia Bunna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Kedus Giorgis or draw

71%

Kedus Giorgis or Ethiopia Bunna

71%

Draw or Ethiopia Bunna

59%

Winning margin

Kedus Giorgis wins by 2+

18%

Ethiopia Bunna wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Kedus Giorgis 1+ goals

69%

Kedus Giorgis 2+ goals

33%

Kedus Giorgis 3+ goals

12%

Ethiopia Bunna 1+ goals

61%

Ethiopia Bunna 2+ goals

25%

Ethiopia Bunna 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Kedus Giorgis (draw refunded)

58%

Ethiopia Bunna (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kedus Giorgis at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.79 · 102 matches

Ethiopia Bunna away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.03 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kedus Giorgis attack 1.33 + Ethiopia Bunna defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.18

Ethiopia Bunna attack 1.11 + Kedus Giorgis defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kedus Giorgis scores more

41%

level

29%

Ethiopia Bunna scores more

29%

Kedus Giorgis at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kedus Giorgis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff