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Ethiopia Bunna vs Kedus Giorgis — Premier League 2019

Ethiopia Bunna
Ethiopia Bunna
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kedus Giorgis
Kedus Giorgis
6/14/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 35Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Ethiopia Bunna35%
×Draw29%
Kedus Giorgis36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ethiopia Bunna
1.11
Kedus Giorgis
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 101 away

creates per match

Ethiopia Bunna
1.47
Kedus Giorgis
1.29

allows per match

Ethiopia Bunna
0.99
Kedus Giorgis
0.76

finishing

Ethiopia Bunna+0.00on par
Kedus Giorgis+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ethiopia Bunna ↓

Kedus Giorgis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ethiopia Bunna or draw
64%
Ethiopia Bunna or Kedus Giorgis
71%
Draw or Kedus Giorgis
65%

Winning margin

Ethiopia Bunna wins by 2+
14%
Kedus Giorgis wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ethiopia Bunna 1+ goals
67%
Ethiopia Bunna 2+ goals
30%
Ethiopia Bunna 3+ goals
10%
Kedus Giorgis 1+ goals
68%
Kedus Giorgis 2+ goals
32%
Kedus Giorgis 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ethiopia Bunna (draw refunded)
49%
Kedus Giorgis (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ethiopia Bunna at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.99 · 101 matches

Kedus Giorgis away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.76 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ethiopia Bunna attack 1.47 + Kedus Giorgis defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.11

Kedus Giorgis attack 1.29 + Ethiopia Bunna defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Ethiopia Bunna scores more
35%
level
29%
Kedus Giorgis scores more
36%

Kedus Giorgis at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Kedus Giorgis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ethiopia Bunna 2–0 Kedus Giorgis

Ethiopia Bunna beat Kedus Giorgis 2-0 in Premier League on June 14, 2025.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.