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Kedus Giorgis vs Bahardar — Premier League 2019

Kedus Giorgis
Kedus Giorgis
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Bahardar
Bahardar
3/2/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Kedus Giorgis38%
×Draw30%
Bahardar32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kedus Giorgis
1.09
Bahardar
0.97

Kedus Giorgis creates 12% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 103 away

creates per match

Kedus Giorgis
1.33
Bahardar
1.16

allows per match

Kedus Giorgis
0.79
Bahardar
0.85

finishing

Kedus Giorgis+0.00on par
Bahardar+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kedus Giorgis ↓

Bahardar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Kedus Giorgis or draw
68%
Kedus Giorgis or Bahardar
70%
Draw or Bahardar
62%

Winning margin

Kedus Giorgis wins by 2+
15%
Bahardar wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kedus Giorgis 1+ goals
66%
Kedus Giorgis 2+ goals
30%
Kedus Giorgis 3+ goals
10%
Bahardar 1+ goals
62%
Bahardar 2+ goals
25%
Bahardar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kedus Giorgis (draw refunded)
54%
Bahardar (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kedus Giorgis at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.79 · 102 matches

Bahardar away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.85 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kedus Giorgis attack 1.33 + Bahardar defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.09

Bahardar attack 1.16 + Kedus Giorgis defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kedus Giorgis scores more
38%
level
30%
Bahardar scores more
32%

Kedus Giorgis at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kedus Giorgis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kedus Giorgis 1 – 4 Bahardar

Bahardar beat Kedus Giorgis 4-1 in Premier League on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.