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Bahardar vs Kedus Giorgis — Premier League 2019

Bahardar
Bahardar
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kedus Giorgis
Kedus Giorgis
4/12/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Bahardar30%
×Draw30%
Kedus Giorgis39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bahardar
0.94
Kedus Giorgis
1.11

Kedus Giorgis creates 18% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 101 away

creates per match

Bahardar
1.12
Kedus Giorgis
1.29

allows per match

Bahardar
0.94
Kedus Giorgis
0.76

finishing

Bahardar+0.00on par
Kedus Giorgis+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahardar ↓

Kedus Giorgis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bahardar or draw
61%
Bahardar or Kedus Giorgis
70%
Draw or Kedus Giorgis
70%

Winning margin

Bahardar wins by 2+
11%
Kedus Giorgis wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Bahardar 1+ goals
61%
Bahardar 2+ goals
24%
Bahardar 3+ goals
7%
Kedus Giorgis 1+ goals
67%
Kedus Giorgis 2+ goals
30%
Kedus Giorgis 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bahardar (draw refunded)
44%
Kedus Giorgis (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahardar at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.94 · 100 matches

Kedus Giorgis away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.76 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahardar attack 1.12 + Kedus Giorgis defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.94

Kedus Giorgis attack 1.29 + Bahardar defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bahardar scores more
30%
level
30%
Kedus Giorgis scores more
39%

Kedus Giorgis at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kedus Giorgis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Bahardar 1–1 Kedus Giorgis

Bahardar and Kedus Giorgis drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 12, 2024.

The match was played at Dire Dawa Stadium in Dire Dawa.