Kedah 0–3 Johor Darul Takzim FC: Result & Stats

Kedah

FT

0 – 3

Johor Darul Takzim FC

11/2/2019

Malaysia Cup · FinalStadium Nasional Bukit Jalil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kedah21%

×Draw20%

Johor Darul Takzim FC59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KedahExpected goals in this matchJohor Darul Takzim FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

2.33

Kedah

1.33

Johor Darul Takzim FC

2.33

Johor Darul Takzim FC creates 75% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 24 away

2.08

creates per match

2.88

1.77

allows per match

0.58

creates per match

Kedah

2.08

Johor Darul Takzim FC

2.88

allows per match

Kedah

1.77

Johor Darul Takzim FC

0.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kedah+0.00on par

Johor Darul Takzim FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kedah ↓

Johor Darul Takzim FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Kedah or draw

41%

Kedah or Johor Darul Takzim FC

80%

Draw or Johor Darul Takzim FC

79%

Winning margin

Kedah wins by 2+

9%

Johor Darul Takzim FC wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Kedah 1+ goals

74%

Kedah 2+ goals

38%

Kedah 3+ goals

15%

Johor Darul Takzim FC 1+ goals

90%

Johor Darul Takzim FC 2+ goals

67%

Johor Darul Takzim FC 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Kedah (draw refunded)

26%

Johor Darul Takzim FC (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kedah at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Johor Darul Takzim FC away — creates 2.88, concedes 0.58 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kedah attack 2.08 + Johor Darul Takzim FC defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 1.33

Johor Darul Takzim FC attack 2.88 + Kedah defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Kedah scores more

21%

level

20%

Johor Darul Takzim FC scores more

59%

Johor Darul Takzim FC at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Johor Darul Takzim FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff