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Johor Darul Takzim FC vs Kedah — Malaysia Cup 2019

Johor Darul Takzim FC
Johor Darul Takzim FCadvanced
FT
1 – 0
Kedah
Kedah
11/18/2021Malaysia CupMalaysia Cup · Quarter-finalsStadium Sultan Ibrahim Larkin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Johor Darul Takzim FC70%
×Draw16%
Kedah14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Johor Darul Takzim FC
2.66
Kedah
1.10

Johor Darul Takzim FC creates 142% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 11 away

creates per match

Johor Darul Takzim FC
3.41
Kedah
1.73

allows per match

Johor Darul Takzim FC
0.48
Kedah
1.91

finishing

Johor Darul Takzim FC+0.00on par
Kedah+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Johor Darul Takzim FC ↓

Kedah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Johor Darul Takzim FC or draw
86%
Johor Darul Takzim FC or Kedah
84%
Draw or Kedah
30%

Winning margin

Johor Darul Takzim FC wins by 2+
49%
Kedah wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Johor Darul Takzim FC 1+ goals
93%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 2+ goals
74%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 3+ goals
49%
Kedah 1+ goals
67%
Kedah 2+ goals
30%
Kedah 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Johor Darul Takzim FC (draw refunded)
84%
Kedah (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Johor Darul Takzim FC at home — creates 3.41, concedes 0.48 · 27 matches

Kedah away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Johor Darul Takzim FC attack 3.41 + Kedah defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.66

Kedah attack 1.73 + Johor Darul Takzim FC defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Johor Darul Takzim FC scores more
70%
level
16%
Kedah scores more
14%

Johor Darul Takzim FC at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Johor Darul Takzim FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Malaysia Cup: Johor Darul Takzim FC 1–0 Kedah

Johor Darul Takzim FC beat Kedah 1-0 in Malaysia Cup on November 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stadium Sultan Ibrahim Larkin in Nusajaya.