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Kecskeméti TE II vs Hódmezővásárhely — NB III - Southeast 2023

Kecskeméti TE II
Kecskeméti TE II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Hódmezővásárhely
Hódmezővásárhely
4/13/2025NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 24Műkertvárosi Sportcentrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Kecskeméti TE II38%
×Draw25%
Hódmezővásárhely38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kecskeméti TE II
1.47
Hódmezővásárhely
1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

creates per match

Kecskeméti TE II
1.57
Hódmezővásárhely
1.36

allows per match

Kecskeméti TE II
1.57
Hódmezővásárhely
1.36

finishing

Kecskeméti TE II+0.00on par
Hódmezővásárhely+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kecskeméti TE II ↓

Hódmezővásárhely →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kecskeméti TE II or draw
62%
Kecskeméti TE II or Hódmezővásárhely
75%
Draw or Hódmezővásárhely
62%

Winning margin

Kecskeméti TE II wins by 2+
18%
Hódmezővásárhely wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Kecskeméti TE II 1+ goals
77%
Kecskeméti TE II 2+ goals
43%
Kecskeméti TE II 3+ goals
18%
Hódmezővásárhely 1+ goals
77%
Hódmezővásárhely 2+ goals
43%
Hódmezővásárhely 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Kecskeméti TE II (draw refunded)
50%
Hódmezővásárhely (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kecskeméti TE II at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.57 · 30 matches

Hódmezővásárhely away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kecskeméti TE II attack 1.57 + Hódmezővásárhely defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.47

Hódmezővásárhely attack 1.36 + Kecskeméti TE II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kecskeméti TE II scores more
38%
level
25%
Hódmezővásárhely scores more
38%

Kecskeméti TE II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kecskeméti TE II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kecskeméti TE II vs Hódmezővásárhely

Kecskeméti TE II and Hódmezővásárhely drew 2-2 in NB III - Southeast on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at Műkertvárosi Sportcentrum in Kecskemét.