Hódmezővásárhely vs Kecskeméti TE II — NB III - Southeast 2023
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 30+ matches
Hódmezővásárhely48%
Kecskeméti TE II28%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Hódmezővásárhely creates 37% more chances
Season form · 45 home / 30 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over55
- Under45
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes57
- No43
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Hódmezővásárhely ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Hódmezővásárhely at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.31 · 45 matches
Kecskeméti TE II away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Hódmezővásárhely attack 1.69 + Kecskeméti TE II defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.66
Kecskeméti TE II attack 1.10 + Hódmezővásárhely defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.21
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
Hódmezővásárhely at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "Hódmezővásárhely will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Monori Se
ESMTK
Gyulai Termál
III. Kerületi TUE
Vasas II
Csepel
Dabas
Honvéd II
Dunaharaszti MTKHódmezővásárhely
Szegedi VSE
BKV Előre
Szeged-Csanád II
Békéscsaba II
Martfűi LSE
TiszaföldvárIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Hódmezővásárhely host Kecskeméti TE II on Sunday, 1 October 2023 at 13:00. The match is part of the NB III - Southeast 2023/2024 season.
NB III - Southeast: Hódmezővásárhely 2–1 Kecskeméti TE II
Hódmezővásárhely beat Kecskeméti TE II 2-1 in NB III - Southeast on October 1, 2023.
The match was played at Hódmezővásárhelyi Városi Stadion in Hódmezővásárhely.