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Kecskeméti TE II vs Cegledi VSE — NB III - Southeast 2023

Kecskeméti TE II
Kecskeméti TE II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cegledi VSE
Cegledi VSE
10/8/2023NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 10Műkertvárosi Sportcentrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kecskeméti TE II60%
×Draw19%
Cegledi VSE21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kecskeméti TE II
2.39
Cegledi VSE
1.35

Kecskeméti TE II creates 77% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Kecskeméti TE II
1.57
Cegledi VSE
1.13

allows per match

Kecskeméti TE II
1.57
Cegledi VSE
3.20

finishing

Kecskeméti TE II+0.00on par
Cegledi VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kecskeméti TE II ↓

Cegledi VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Kecskeméti TE II or draw
79%
Kecskeméti TE II or Cegledi VSE
81%
Draw or Cegledi VSE
40%

Winning margin

Kecskeméti TE II wins by 2+
38%
Cegledi VSE wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kecskeméti TE II 1+ goals
91%
Kecskeméti TE II 2+ goals
69%
Kecskeméti TE II 3+ goals
42%
Cegledi VSE 1+ goals
74%
Cegledi VSE 2+ goals
39%
Cegledi VSE 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kecskeméti TE II (draw refunded)
74%
Cegledi VSE (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kecskeméti TE II at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.57 · 30 matches

Cegledi VSE away — creates 1.13, concedes 3.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kecskeméti TE II attack 1.57 + Cegledi VSE defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.39

Cegledi VSE attack 1.13 + Kecskeméti TE II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Kecskeméti TE II scores more
60%
level
19%
Cegledi VSE scores more
21%

Kecskeméti TE II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Kecskeméti TE II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southeast: Kecskeméti TE II 3–0 Cegledi VSE

Kecskeméti TE II beat Cegledi VSE 3-0 in NB III - Southeast on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Műkertvárosi Sportcentrum in Kecskemét.