Cegledi VSE vs Kecskeméti TE II — NB III - Northwest 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 17+ matches
Cegledi VSE42%
Kecskeméti TE II35%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Cegledi VSE creates 10% more chances
Season form · 37 home / 17 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over64
- Under36
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes65
- No35
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Cegledi VSE ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Cegledi VSE at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.97 · 37 matches
Kecskeméti TE II away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Cegledi VSE attack 1.19 + Kecskeméti TE II defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.72
Kecskeméti TE II attack 1.18 + Cegledi VSE defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.57
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
Cegledi VSE at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "Cegledi VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Gyirmot SE
Tatabánya
Dorogi FC
Puskás II
Komárom
Haladás VSE
MTE 1904
Veszprém
Budaörs
Bicskei
Újpest II
SC Sopron
Gyori ETO II
Pápai Perutz
Balatonfüredi
Zsámbéki SKIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Cegledi VSE host Kecskeméti TE II on Sunday, 4 December 2022 at 12:00. The match is part of the NB III - Northwest 2019/2020 season.
NB III - Northwest: Cegledi VSE 1–1 Kecskeméti TE II
Cegledi VSE and Kecskeméti TE II drew 1-1 in NB III - Northwest on December 4, 2022.
The match was played at Malomtó széli sporttelep in Cegléd.