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Kecskeméti TE II vs Bánk — NB III - Northwest 2019

Kecskeméti TE II
Kecskeméti TE II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bánk
Bánk
11/6/2022NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Közép - 16Epreskert utcai focipálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kecskeméti TE II54%
×Draw21%
Bánk25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kecskeméti TE II
2.11
Bánk
1.39

Kecskeméti TE II creates 52% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Kecskeméti TE II
1.41
Bánk
1.06

allows per match

Kecskeméti TE II
1.71
Bánk
2.82

finishing

Kecskeméti TE II+0.00on par
Bánk+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kecskeméti TE II ↓

Bánk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Kecskeméti TE II or draw
75%
Kecskeméti TE II or Bánk
79%
Draw or Bánk
46%

Winning margin

Kecskeméti TE II wins by 2+
32%
Bánk wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kecskeméti TE II 1+ goals
88%
Kecskeméti TE II 2+ goals
62%
Kecskeméti TE II 3+ goals
35%
Bánk 1+ goals
75%
Bánk 2+ goals
40%
Bánk 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Kecskeméti TE II (draw refunded)
68%
Bánk (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kecskeméti TE II at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Bánk away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kecskeméti TE II attack 1.41 + Bánk defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.11

Bánk attack 1.06 + Kecskeméti TE II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kecskeméti TE II scores more
54%
level
21%
Bánk scores more
25%

Kecskeméti TE II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kecskeméti TE II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kecskeméti TE II vs Bánk

Bánk beat Kecskeméti TE II 1-0 in NB III - Northwest on November 6, 2022.

The match was played at Epreskert utcai focipálya in Kecskemét.