Bánk 0–2 Kecskeméti TE II: Result & Stats

Bánk

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Kecskeméti TE II

4/30/2023

NB III - Northwest · Közép - 35Berkenyei Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bánk31%

×Draw23%

Kecskeméti TE II46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BánkExpected goals in this matchKecskeméti TE II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.85

Bánk

1.49

Kecskeméti TE II

1.85

Kecskeméti TE II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 17 away

0.74

creates per match

1.18

2.53

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Bánk

0.74

Kecskeméti TE II

1.18

allows per match

Bánk

2.53

Kecskeméti TE II

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bánk+0.00on par

Kecskeméti TE II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bánk ↓

Kecskeméti TE II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Bánk or draw

54%

Bánk or Kecskeméti TE II

77%

Draw or Kecskeméti TE II

69%

Winning margin

Bánk wins by 2+

14%

Kecskeméti TE II wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Bánk 1+ goals

77%

Bánk 2+ goals

44%

Bánk 3+ goals

19%

Kecskeméti TE II 1+ goals

84%

Kecskeméti TE II 2+ goals

55%

Kecskeméti TE II 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Bánk (draw refunded)

40%

Kecskeméti TE II (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bánk at home — creates 0.74, concedes 2.53 · 19 matches

Kecskeméti TE II away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bánk attack 0.74 + Kecskeméti TE II defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.49

Kecskeméti TE II attack 1.18 + Bánk defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bánk scores more

31%

level

23%

Kecskeméti TE II scores more

46%

Kecskeméti TE II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kecskeméti TE II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff