Kecskeméti TE II vs Balassagyarmat VSE — NB III - Northwest 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 17+ matches
Kecskeméti TE II24%
Balassagyarmat VSE54%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Balassagyarmat VSE creates 60% more chances
Season form · 17 home / 24 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over60
- Under40
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes59
- No41
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Kecskeméti TE II ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Kecskeméti TE II at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches
Balassagyarmat VSE away — creates 2.08, concedes 0.96 · 24 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Kecskeméti TE II attack 1.41 + Balassagyarmat VSE defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.19
Balassagyarmat VSE attack 2.08 + Kecskeméti TE II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.90
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 54%?"
Balassagyarmat VSE at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 54% does not mean "Balassagyarmat VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Gyirmot SE
Tatabánya
Dorogi FC
Puskás II
Komárom
Haladás VSE
MTE 1904
Veszprém
Budaörs
Bicskei
Újpest II
SC Sopron
Gyori ETO II
Pápai Perutz
Balatonfüredi
Zsámbéki SKIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Kecskeméti TE II host Balassagyarmat VSE on Sunday, 20 November 2022 at 00:00. The match is part of the NB III - Northwest 2019/2020 season.
Kecskeméti TE II face Balassagyarmat VSE (NB III - Northwest)
NB III - Northwest returns with Kecskeméti TE II hosting Balassagyarmat VSE. Match starts November 20, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Kecskeméti TE II host Balassagyarmat VSE at Széktói Sportpálya.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.