Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Balassagyarmat VSE vs Kecskeméti TE II — NB III - Northwest 2019

Balassagyarmat VSE
Balassagyarmat VSE
CANC
00:00
Kecskeméti TE II
Kecskeméti TE II
5/14/2023NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Közép - 37Balassagyarmati Kövi Pál Sportközpont

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Balassagyarmat VSE57%
×Draw23%
Kecskeméti TE II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balassagyarmat VSE
1.80
Kecskeméti TE II
0.95

Balassagyarmat VSE creates 89% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 17 away

creates per match

Balassagyarmat VSE
1.36
Kecskeméti TE II
1.18

allows per match

Balassagyarmat VSE
0.73
Kecskeméti TE II
2.24

finishing

Balassagyarmat VSE+0.00on par
Kecskeméti TE II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balassagyarmat VSE ↓

Kecskeméti TE II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Balassagyarmat VSE or draw
80%
Balassagyarmat VSE or Kecskeméti TE II
77%
Draw or Kecskeméti TE II
43%

Winning margin

Balassagyarmat VSE wins by 2+
33%
Kecskeméti TE II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Balassagyarmat VSE 1+ goals
83%
Balassagyarmat VSE 2+ goals
54%
Balassagyarmat VSE 3+ goals
27%
Kecskeméti TE II 1+ goals
61%
Kecskeméti TE II 2+ goals
25%
Kecskeméti TE II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Balassagyarmat VSE (draw refunded)
74%
Kecskeméti TE II (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balassagyarmat VSE at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.73 · 22 matches

Kecskeméti TE II away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balassagyarmat VSE attack 1.36 + Kecskeméti TE II defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.80

Kecskeméti TE II attack 1.18 + Balassagyarmat VSE defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Balassagyarmat VSE scores more
57%
level
23%
Kecskeméti TE II scores more
20%

Balassagyarmat VSE at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Balassagyarmat VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Balassagyarmat VSE vs Kecskeméti TE II — Match Preview

Balassagyarmat VSE face Kecskeméti TE II on May 14, 2023 in this NB III - Northwest fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Balassagyarmat VSE host Kecskeméti TE II at Balassagyarmati Kövi Pál Sportközpont.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.