Keçiörengücü 1–2 Erzurumspor FK: Result & Stats

Keçiörengücü

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Erzurumspor FK

H. Bulut 12'

E. Tozlu 90' (pen)

C. Sylla 90'

2/18/2026

1. Lig · Round 26Aktepe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Keçiörengücü42%

×Draw25%

Erzurumspor FK33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KeçiörengücüExpected goals in this matchErzurumspor FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.29

Keçiörengücü

1.48

Erzurumspor FK

1.29

Keçiörengücü creates 15% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 39 away

2.08

creates per match

1.49

1.10

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Keçiörengücü

2.08

Erzurumspor FK

1.49

allows per match

Keçiörengücü

1.10

Erzurumspor FK

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Keçiörengücü+0.00on par

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Keçiörengücü ↓

Erzurumspor FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Keçiörengücü or draw

67%

Keçiörengücü or Erzurumspor FK

75%

Draw or Erzurumspor FK

58%

Winning margin

Keçiörengücü wins by 2+

20%

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Keçiörengücü 1+ goals

77%

Keçiörengücü 2+ goals

43%

Keçiörengücü 3+ goals

19%

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals

72%

Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals

37%

Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Keçiörengücü (draw refunded)

56%

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Keçiörengücü at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.10 · 39 matches

Erzurumspor FK away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.87 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Keçiörengücü attack 2.08 + Erzurumspor FK defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.48

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.49 + Keçiörengücü defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Keçiörengücü scores more

42%

level

25%

Erzurumspor FK scores more

33%

Keçiörengücü at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Keçiörengücü will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

C. Sylla

Erzurumspor FK · F

8.2

Match Events

12'

H. Bulut↳ O. Roshi

32'

Brandon Baiye

42'

Huseyin Bulut

46'

M. Rodriguez← B. Keser

59'

İbrahim Akdağ

60'

Orhan Ovacıklı

67'

A. Ulgen← S. Akgun

67'

A. Kabak← G. Crociata

75'

Junior Fernandes

76'

Fernando Andrade← G. Giorbelidze

76'

C. Sylla← M. Fettahoglu

77'

Mexer← F. Ezeh

77'

H. Ayan← J. Fernandes

86'

86'

86'

90'

90'

E. TozluPenalty

90'

C. Sylla↳ M. Rodriguez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KeçiörengücüErzurumspor

Overview

27%Possession73%

6Total Shots15

5Corners4

14Fouls11

Shots

6Total Shots15

1On Target4

3Off Target8

2Blocked3

3Inside Box11

3Outside Box4

Passing

27%Possession73%

225Total Passes630

167Accurate Passes579

74%Pass Accuracy92%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls11

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Keçiörengücü vs Erzurumspor FK

Erzurumspor FK beat Keçiörengücü 2-1 in 1. Lig on February 18, 2026.

Goals: H. Bulut (12'), E. Tozlu (90' pen), C. Sylla (90').

Erzurumspor FK controlled possession (73%) and registered 15 shots to 6.

The match was played at Aktepe Stadium in Ankara.

Keçiörengücü vs Erzurumspor FK — 1. Lig 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Keçiörengücü vs Erzurumspor FK