Keçiörengücü 1–3 Erzurumspor FK: Result & Stats

Keçiörengücü

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Erzurumspor FK

M. Dembélé 65'

C. Sylla 87', 16'

T. Teklić 40' (pen)

3/10/2025

1. Lig · Round 29Aktepe Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Keçiörengücü42%

×Draw25%

Erzurumspor FK33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KeçiörengücüExpected goals in this matchErzurumspor FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.29

Keçiörengücü

1.48

Erzurumspor FK

1.29

Keçiörengücü creates 15% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 39 away

2.08

creates per match

1.49

1.10

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Keçiörengücü

2.08

Erzurumspor FK

1.49

allows per match

Keçiörengücü

1.10

Erzurumspor FK

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Keçiörengücü+0.00on par

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Keçiörengücü ↓

Erzurumspor FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Keçiörengücü or draw

67%

Keçiörengücü or Erzurumspor FK

75%

Draw or Erzurumspor FK

58%

Winning margin

Keçiörengücü wins by 2+

20%

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Keçiörengücü 1+ goals

77%

Keçiörengücü 2+ goals

43%

Keçiörengücü 3+ goals

19%

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals

72%

Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals

37%

Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Keçiörengücü (draw refunded)

56%

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Keçiörengücü at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.10 · 39 matches

Erzurumspor FK away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.87 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Keçiörengücü attack 2.08 + Erzurumspor FK defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.48

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.49 + Keçiörengücü defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Keçiörengücü scores more

42%

level

25%

Erzurumspor FK scores more

33%

Keçiörengücü at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Keçiörengücü will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

91

T. Teklić

Erzurumspor FK · F

8.3

Match Events

-5'

16'

37'

38'

40'

T. TeklićPenalty

46'

Marcos Silva← H. Ayaroğlu

46'

65'

68'

69'

75'

75'

77'

S. Sarıkaya← O. Roshi

77'

80'

81'

87'

87'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KeçiörengücüErzurumspor

Overview

58%Possession42%

11Total Shots6

5Corners6

20Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots6

2On Target3

5Off Target2

4Blocked1

7Inside Box5

4Outside Box1

Passing

58%Possession42%

327Total Passes234

232Accurate Passes144

71%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

20Fouls16

6Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2

1. Lig: Keçiörengücü 1–3 Erzurumspor FK

Erzurumspor FK beat Keçiörengücü 3-1 in 1. Lig on March 10, 2025.

Goals: C. Sylla (16', 87'), T. Teklić (40' pen), M. Dembélé (65').

Keçiörengücü controlled possession (58%) and registered 11 shots to 6.

The match was played at Aktepe Stadı in Ankara.

Keçiörengücü vs Erzurumspor FK — 1. Lig 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

1. Lig: Keçiörengücü 1–3 Erzurumspor FK