KCCA 4–1 Blacks Power: Result & Stats

KCCA

FT

4 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Blacks Power

R. Mato 90+1', 52'

A. Okello 69', 58'

B. Nsubuga 73'

11/5/2022

Premier League · Round 6MTN Omondi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

KCCA69%

×Draw20%

Blacks Power11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KCCAExpected goals in this matchBlacks Power

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

0.64

KCCA

1.97

Blacks Power

0.64

KCCA creates 208% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 14 away

2.14

creates per match

0.57

0.71

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

KCCA

2.14

Blacks Power

0.57

allows per match

KCCA

0.71

Blacks Power

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KCCA+0.00on par

Blacks Power+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KCCA ↓

Blacks Power →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

KCCA or draw

89%

KCCA or Blacks Power

80%

Draw or Blacks Power

31%

Winning margin

KCCA wins by 2+

43%

Blacks Power wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

KCCA 1+ goals

86%

KCCA 2+ goals

58%

KCCA 3+ goals

31%

Blacks Power 1+ goals

47%

Blacks Power 2+ goals

14%

Blacks Power 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

KCCA (draw refunded)

86%

Blacks Power (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KCCA at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.71 · 99 matches

Blacks Power away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KCCA attack 2.14 + Blacks Power defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.97

Blacks Power attack 0.57 + KCCA defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

KCCA scores more

69%

level

20%

Blacks Power scores more

11%

KCCA at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "KCCA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

B. Ogama← B. Ogama

52'

R. Mato

58'

A. Okello

69'

A. Okello

70'

F. Onekalit← F. Onekalit

73'

B. Nsubuga

73'

B. Nsubuga

90+1'

R. Mato

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff