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Blacks Power vs KCCA — Premier League 2019

Blacks Power
Blacks Power
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
KCCA
KCCA
4/5/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Akii Bua Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Blacks Power29%
×Draw30%
KCCA41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blacks Power
0.93
KCCA
1.17

KCCA creates 26% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 100 away

creates per match

Blacks Power
0.93
KCCA
1.20

allows per match

Blacks Power
1.14
KCCA
0.93

finishing

Blacks Power+0.00on par
KCCA+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blacks Power ↓

KCCA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Blacks Power or draw
59%
Blacks Power or KCCA
70%
Draw or KCCA
71%

Winning margin

Blacks Power wins by 2+
10%
KCCA wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Blacks Power 1+ goals
61%
Blacks Power 2+ goals
24%
Blacks Power 3+ goals
7%
KCCA 1+ goals
69%
KCCA 2+ goals
33%
KCCA 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Blacks Power (draw refunded)
41%
KCCA (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blacks Power at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

KCCA away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.93 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blacks Power attack 0.93 + KCCA defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.93

KCCA attack 1.20 + Blacks Power defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Blacks Power scores more
29%
level
30%
KCCA scores more
41%

KCCA at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "KCCA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Blacks Power 1–1 KCCA

Blacks Power and KCCA drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 5, 2023.

The match was played at Akii Bua Stadium in Lira.