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KCB vs GFE 105 — Super League 2018

KCB
KCB
FT
3 – 1
GFE 105
GFE 105
3/24/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

KCB66%
×Draw21%
GFE 10513%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KCB
1.91
GFE 105
0.69

KCB creates 177% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 16 away

creates per match

KCB
1.87
GFE 105
0.50

allows per match

KCB
0.87
GFE 105
1.94

finishing

KCB+0.00on par
GFE 105+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KCB ↓

GFE 105 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

KCB or draw
87%
KCB or GFE 105
79%
Draw or GFE 105
34%

Winning margin

KCB wins by 2+
40%
GFE 105 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

KCB 1+ goals
85%
KCB 2+ goals
57%
KCB 3+ goals
30%
GFE 105 1+ goals
50%
GFE 105 2+ goals
15%
GFE 105 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

KCB (draw refunded)
84%
GFE 105 (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KCB at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

GFE 105 away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KCB attack 1.87 + GFE 105 defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.91

GFE 105 attack 0.50 + KCB defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

KCB scores more
66%
level
21%
GFE 105 scores more
13%

KCB at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "KCB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KCB vs GFE 105

KCB beat GFE 105 3-1 in Super League on March 24, 2018.