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GFE 105 vs KCB — Super League 2018

GFE 105
GFE 105
FT
0 – 3
KCB
KCB
8/11/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

GFE 10523%
×Draw32%
KCB45%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GFE 105
0.71
KCB
1.12

KCB creates 58% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 17 away

creates per match

GFE 105
0.88
KCB
1.18

allows per match

GFE 105
1.06
KCB
0.53

finishing

GFE 105+0.00on par
KCB+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GFE 105 ↓

KCB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–118%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

GFE 105 or draw
55%
GFE 105 or KCB
68%
Draw or KCB
77%

Winning margin

GFE 105 wins by 2+
7%
KCB wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

GFE 105 1+ goals
51%
GFE 105 2+ goals
16%
GFE 105 3+ goals
4%
KCB 1+ goals
67%
KCB 2+ goals
31%
KCB 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

GFE 105 (draw refunded)
34%
KCB (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GFE 105 at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

KCB away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GFE 105 attack 0.88 + KCB defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.71

KCB attack 1.18 + GFE 105 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

GFE 105 scores more
23%
level
32%
KCB scores more
45%

KCB at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "KCB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GFE 105 vs KCB

KCB beat GFE 105 3-0 in Super League on August 11, 2018.