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KCB vs FC Talanta — Super League 2018

KCB
KCB
FT
0 – 1
FC Talanta
FC Talanta
5/25/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

KCB48%
×Draw26%
FC Talanta26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KCB
1.52
FC Talanta
1.04

KCB creates 46% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 18 away

creates per match

KCB
1.87
FC Talanta
1.22

allows per match

KCB
0.87
FC Talanta
1.17

finishing

KCB+0.00on par
FC Talanta+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KCB ↓

FC Talanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

KCB or draw
74%
KCB or FC Talanta
74%
Draw or FC Talanta
52%

Winning margin

KCB wins by 2+
24%
FC Talanta wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

KCB 1+ goals
78%
KCB 2+ goals
45%
KCB 3+ goals
20%
FC Talanta 1+ goals
65%
FC Talanta 2+ goals
28%
FC Talanta 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

KCB (draw refunded)
65%
FC Talanta (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KCB at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

FC Talanta away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KCB attack 1.87 + FC Talanta defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.52

FC Talanta attack 1.22 + KCB defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

KCB scores more
48%
level
26%
FC Talanta scores more
26%

KCB at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "KCB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

KCB 0 – 1 FC Talanta

FC Talanta beat KCB 1-0 in Super League on May 25, 2018.