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FC Talanta vs KCB — Super League 2018

FC Talanta
FC Talanta
FT
0 – 2
KCB
KCB
10/7/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 38

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

FC Talanta24%
×Draw28%
KCB48%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Talanta
0.89
KCB
1.38

KCB creates 55% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

creates per match

FC Talanta
1.25
KCB
1.13

allows per match

FC Talanta
1.63
KCB
0.53

finishing

FC Talanta+0.00on par
KCB+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Talanta ↓

KCB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FC Talanta or draw
52%
FC Talanta or KCB
72%
Draw or KCB
76%

Winning margin

FC Talanta wins by 2+
8%
KCB wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

FC Talanta 1+ goals
59%
FC Talanta 2+ goals
22%
FC Talanta 3+ goals
6%
KCB 1+ goals
75%
KCB 2+ goals
40%
KCB 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FC Talanta (draw refunded)
33%
KCB (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Talanta at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

KCB away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Talanta attack 1.25 + KCB defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.89

KCB attack 1.13 + FC Talanta defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Talanta scores more
24%
level
28%
KCB scores more
48%

KCB at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "KCB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Talanta 0 – 2 KCB

KCB beat FC Talanta 2-0 in Super League on October 7, 2018.