Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kaya vs Ceres — PFL 2020

Kaya
Kaya
CANC
00:00
Ceres
Ceres
6/11/2023PFLPFL · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kaya34%
×Draw19%
Ceres48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaya
2.31
Ceres
2.74

Ceres creates 19% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 13 away

creates per match

Kaya
3.48
Ceres
4.69

allows per match

Kaya
0.78
Ceres
1.15

finishing

Kaya+0.00on par
Ceres+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaya ↓

Ceres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–26%
1–35%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Kaya or draw
52%
Kaya or Ceres
81%
Draw or Ceres
66%

Winning margin

Kaya wins by 2+
19%
Ceres wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Kaya 1+ goals
90%
Kaya 2+ goals
67%
Kaya 3+ goals
40%
Ceres 1+ goals
93%
Ceres 2+ goals
75%
Ceres 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Kaya (draw refunded)
41%
Ceres (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaya at home — creates 3.48, concedes 0.78 · 46 matches

Ceres away — creates 4.69, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaya attack 3.48 + Ceres defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 2.31

Ceres attack 4.69 + Kaya defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 2.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kaya scores more
34%
level
19%
Ceres scores more
48%

Ceres at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ceres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kaya face Ceres (PFL)

PFL returns with Kaya hosting Ceres. Match starts June 11, 2023. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.