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Ceres vs Kaya — PFL 2020

Ceres
Ceres
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kaya
Kaya
4/7/2024PFLPFL · Round 2Rizal Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ceres33%
×Draw22%
Kaya45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceres
1.60
Kaya
1.89

Kaya creates 18% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 39 away

creates per match

Ceres
2.47
Kaya
3.13

allows per match

Ceres
0.65
Kaya
0.74

finishing

Ceres+0.00on par
Kaya+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceres ↓

Kaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Ceres or draw
55%
Ceres or Kaya
78%
Draw or Kaya
67%

Winning margin

Ceres wins by 2+
16%
Kaya wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Ceres 1+ goals
80%
Ceres 2+ goals
47%
Ceres 3+ goals
22%
Kaya 1+ goals
85%
Kaya 2+ goals
56%
Kaya 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Ceres (draw refunded)
42%
Kaya (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceres at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

Kaya away — creates 3.13, concedes 0.74 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceres attack 2.47 + Kaya defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.60

Kaya attack 3.13 + Ceres defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ceres scores more
33%
level
22%
Kaya scores more
45%

Kaya at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ceres vs Kaya

Kaya beat Ceres 2-0 in PFL on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Rizal Memorial Stadium in Manila.