Kaya 0–2 BG Pathum United: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Kaya

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

BG Pathum United

10/23/2025

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 3Rizal Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kaya37%

×Draw27%

BG Pathum United37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KayaExpected goals in this matchBG Pathum United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

Kaya

1.29

BG Pathum United

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

1.25

creates per match

1.00

1.58

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Kaya

1.25

BG Pathum United

1.00

allows per match

Kaya

1.58

BG Pathum United

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaya+0.00on par

BG Pathum United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaya ↓

BG Pathum United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Kaya or draw

63%

Kaya or BG Pathum United

73%

Draw or BG Pathum United

63%

Winning margin

Kaya wins by 2+

16%

BG Pathum United wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Kaya 1+ goals

72%

Kaya 2+ goals

37%

Kaya 3+ goals

14%

BG Pathum United 1+ goals

72%

BG Pathum United 2+ goals

37%

BG Pathum United 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Kaya (draw refunded)

50%

BG Pathum United (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaya at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

BG Pathum United away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaya attack 1.25 + BG Pathum United defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

BG Pathum United attack 1.00 + Kaya defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Kaya scores more

37%

level

27%

BG Pathum United scores more

37%

Kaya at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Kaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff